Research

 

Hawaiian Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: HA) 

02/18/2014
Prescience initiates coverage on Hawaiian Holdings Inc (NASDAQ: HA) at Strong Buy.  We believe shares of Hawaiian Holdings Inc. (“HA” or “Hawaiian”) are grossly undervalued, reflecting a deep misunderstanding of the company’s economics. In 2010, HA began investing heavily in growth, implementing a capex program to build additional capacity primarily in support of new international routes.  Being that initiating services on routes involves start-up costs, and that from the time service is initiated they take 3 years to reach optimal profitability (i.e., to mature), HA’s GAAP margins were negatively impacted; put another way, from 2010 – 2013, when HA was expanding most aggressively, its GAAP financials both understated and obscured its economic potential. With the capex program approaching completion, HA is at an inflection point: As capex decelerates and new routes mature, we expect Hawaiian’s GAAP financials to begin reflecting its economic potential. We expect margins to rise in 2014 and free cash flow to turn positive in 2015, opening the door for capital returns to shareholders. In 2016 alone, we project the company will generate free cash flow equating to 35% of its current fully diluted market capitalization.  We believe Hawaiian stock has an intrinsic value today of $20 per share, >97% above current trading levels. The significant disconnect presented by HA’s valuation is sweetened by several near and intermediate-term catalysts we believe will drive share price toward intrinsic value. Read our complete report by clicking HERE.

 

Renewable Energy Group (NASDAQ: REGI) 

12/13/2013
Prescience initiates coverage on Renewable Energy Group (NASDAQ: REGI) at Strong Sell.  REGI’s equity has not yet priced in the likely impact of the impending December 31, 2013 expiration of the Blenders’ Tax Credit, which we estimate to have contributed 77% and 104% of Adjusted EBITDA in 2012 and in the 9ME 9/30/2013, respectively. Upon expiration of this subsidy in 2.5 weeks’ time, we believe REGI’s margins will be wiped out and that it will operate at a significant loss.  We believe REGI’s financial disclosures obscure the significance of the tax credit, preventing investors from ascertaining its impact credit on REGI’s financial state, resulting in a steep disconnect between intrinsic value and trading levels. Read our complete report by clicking HERE.

 

Horsehead Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: ZINC) 

09/04/2013
Prescience initiates coverage on Horsehead Holding Corp, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZINC) at Strong Buy.  Horsehead is on schedule to complete a transformational process by Q3 2013, from which the company will emerge as one of the lowest-cost producers of zinc metal products in the world.  ZINC’s under-followed stock is unreasonably cheap and does not reflect the imminent transformative change that will occur before the end of 2013. Once the new plant opens and begins operations, we expect investors to re-rate Horsehead, resulting in material multiple expansion.  Read our complete report by clicking HERE.

 

Planet Payment, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLPM) 

08/30/2013
Prescience issues an update on Planet Payment, Inc. (NASDAQ: PLPM),  reiterating it at Strong Buy.  We believe the panic liquidation by growth-oriented investors following the company’s revenue miss and guidance reduction is fundamentally misguided, resulting in the immediate opportunity to buy into a defensible, high- growth and margin, increasingly cash-generative, and recurring revenue business  at a significant discount to intrinsic value. Our analysis of the company’s underlying operating metrics and a closer examination of the company’s explanations for the guidance reduction reveal that Planet is setting up for a string of upside surprises. We believe the guidance revision was solely the result of delays in tech roll-outs, which are likely to be resolved before year end, and that such delays have no impact on Planet’s earnings power. Read our complete report by clicking HERE.

 

Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) 

08/26/2013
Prescience initiates coverage on Ambarella, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMBA) at short-term Sell. While we appreciate the qualities of AMBA’s business and the company’s long-term prospects, our channel checks indicate it is at elevated risk of an earnings miss. Read our complete report by clicking HERE.

 

AVG Technologies N.V. (NYSE: AVG) 

01/31/2013
Prescience initiates coverage on AVG Technologies N.V. (NYSE: AVG) with a Strong Sell. Read our complete report by clicking HERE.

 

United States Antimony Corp (AMEX: UAMY) 

09/20/2012  
Prescience has published a 30-page analysis on United States Antimony Corp (AMEX: UAMY), a US based producer of the commodity antimony.  We believe shares have been pumped and have substantial downside.  Read by clicking HERE.

 

Student Transportation, Inc. (NASDAQ: STB)  

07/27/2012
Prescience has published a 30-page analysis on $700mm public company Student Transportation, which operates school buses for school systems on an outsourced basis. We believe the company has a flawed business model and financial strategy. Our full report can be downloaded HERE.

 

Planet Payment, Inc. (OTCBB: PLPM) 

06/25/2012
Prescience has published a 30 page research paper on public company Planet Payment, Inc. (PLPM), a provider of international payment processing and multi-currency processing services. Prescience believes Planet Payment’s stock price of $4.30/share significantly undervalues the company.  Download our 30 page analysis HERE.

 

Yongye International, Inc.  (NASDAQ: YONG) 

12/16/2011
Prescience has published a follow-up to its analysis of Yongye International, Inc.  (YONG), a China-based manufacturer of plant and animal nutrients.  We believe Yongye is overstating its raw material costs by at least 50x in an effort to manage the margins it reports on an inflated top line.  The report was published on SeekingAlpha.com and can be read by clicking the following link:  Yongye International: Further Evidence Calls For Regulator Scrutiny

 

Yongye International, Inc.  (NASDAQ: YONG) 

12/02/2011
Prescience has published an analysis of Yongye International, Inc.  (YONG), a China-based manufacturer of plant and animal nutrients, initiating it at Strong Sell.  Our analysis reveals evidence that its sales activities are riddled with undisclosed related party transactions and that its revenue and profit may be overstated in its filings with the SEC. Our full report can be downloaded HERE.

 

A-Power Energy Generation Systems (NASDAQ: APWR) 

11/09/2011
Prescience Investment Group has investigated further A-Power Energy Generation Systems (APWR), a China-based provider of distributed power generation systems and micro power grids. Prescience has uncovered additional evidence supporting its thesis that the company is hoodwinking investors and making little effort toward restoring investor trust.  Download our full analysis HERE.

 

China Gerui Advanced Materials Group, Ltd (NASDAQ: CHOP) 

10/28/2011
Prescience Investment Group has published an analysis of public company China Gerui Advanced Materials Group, Ltd (CHOP), a China-based manufacturer of cold-rolled strip steel products. Prescience urges caution from investors, regulators, and the company’s auditor.  We believe that the company’s revenue and profit may be overstated in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Download our full analysis HERE.

 

Cogo Group, Inc (NASDAQ: COGO) 

08/03/2011
Prescience’ CEO Eiad Asbahi has published a research piece that brings to light several causes for concern related to public company Cogo Group, Inc (NASDAQ: COGO), a China-based provider of digital media modules and distributor of electronic component parts. Specifically, a thorough analysis of the company’s accounts and filings reveal numerous red flags, ones consistent in nature to those exhibited by other troubled Chinese RTOs we’ve assessed in the past. Our analysis is published on SeekingAlpha.com at the following link:  Shorting China’s Cogo Group: Nonfunctional B2B Website Raises Serious Red Flags

 

 A-Power Generation Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: APWR) 

06/17/2011
Prescience has published a research report that brings to light several causes for concern related to public company A-Power Generation Systems, Inc. (APWR), a China-based provider of distributed power generation systems and micro power grids. Specifically, we believe that the company’s revenue and profit may be overstated in its SEC filings. Furthermore, we identified a large number of related parties that have not been properly disclosed by the company.   Download our full analysis HERE.

 

Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABAT) 

05/05/2011
Prescience Investment Group and Kerrisdale Capital Management published a 30 page analysis of public company Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ABAT), a China-based manufacturer of rechargeable polymer lithium-ion (PLI) batteries and electric scooters. The report brings to light several red flags that indicate the company may be fabricating the financial statements it files with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We believe that the company’s revenue and profit are highly overstated in its SEC filings.  Our full analysis can be downloaded at the following link:  Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc.

A summary of our report has been published on SeekingAlpha.com and can be read by clicking on the following link: Advanced Battery Technologies: Questioning the Validity of Company Claims and SEC Filings.

We have also produced a video summary of our findings, along with discussions with certain customers, available at the following links: